Karnataka could witness the flattening of curve from May 17

Bengaluru may get respite from mid-May, after the frantic hunts for hospital and ICU beds, oxygen shortage, increasing positivity rates and deaths. As per the Department of Computational and Data Sciences (CDS), Indian Institute of Science (IISc), the city may witness the peak in active Covid cases on May 17.

The academicians have also predicted that the virus could take away the lives of 14,220 people by June 11.

Last year, the IISc had made similar predictions which turned out to be close to reality. To arrive at the final numbers, the academic experts have used the multi-dimensional partial differential equation model (PDE) model by taking into account factors such as vaccination, lockdown scenarios and the assumption of two unreported cases for every reported case etc.

The 30-day lockdown (till May 24), imposed by the state government, is expected to bring down the fatality rate and the spread of infection. The experts of the country’s premier institute are of the view that the total number of covid-19 cases would decrease from 28 lakh to 13.93 lakh in the second week of June and the death toll can be lowered to 14,220 from the projected 26,171 deaths on June 11.

It can also be noted from the analysis is that the covid-19 curve may begin flattening from mid-May but the experts do not foresee the cases reducing drastically. Even though the active cases may decrease in the coming two weeks, the IISc analysis shows that the number of covid-19 deaths will continue to see a steady increase from 9,664 fatalities on May 17 to 14,220 deaths on June 11.

Sashikumar Ganesan, Chairman at Department of Computational and Data Sciences, IISc said, “The curve will start flattening from May 17. The number of deaths will not, however, come down immediately as active covid-19 cases are likely to see an increase in the severity of infection many days after contracting the virus.’

He also urged the state government not to give respite to the lockdown conditions after 30 days. He said, “While Karnataka may see a big relief in mid-May, neighbouring Tamil Nadu might start to see an alarming increase in the number of covid-19 cases just when we hit the peak. The government should be careful on opening the borders.” He requested everyone to follow the Covid-19 protocols such as wearing masks, washing hands with soap or using hand sanitisers and maintaining social distance wherever possible as it is the need of the hour.